Sunday, May 15, 2005

Why Is Schubert So Coy?

Schubert is withholding his endorsement, but why? Does anybody really think he is ideologically inclined to support Castro? Until his tantrum during the debate, everyone would have expected Julian to throw his votes to Hardberger in the event he didn’t make the runoff. Did this provide an opening for Carroll?

Carroll got shut out, so Julian’s bluff was never called. But what is really in the offing? If Schubert does the obvious, he endorses Hardberger and Phil wins. But Hardberger feels pretty much entitled to the remnants of Carroll’s base so he probably wouldn’t view this as a substantial favor. But Castro could really use the help broadening his appeal, especially with the likelihood that some portion of his base might not show up to vote in the runoff. If Carroll throws his weight to Julian, Castro is liable to be very grateful.

So why would Carroll be interested in gratitude? Well, if as some suspect, he is really planning to run for County Commissioner, then support from Castro could substantially increase Schubert’s appeal with the Latino voters. Could Carroll Schubert be looking for a quid pro quo from Julian that Hardberger cannot really match? This would be a risky tact for Schubert to take, but it could make for a very close race in the final hours.

Of course it presumes that his conservative Northside constituency would follow his lead, which they very well might not. In this event he discredits himself with his own base, alienates Hardberger, Castro loses anyway and has no quid pro quo to offer. This would leave Phil up a creek with out a paddle of any kind. He might once again look to the state Republican political machine for support, but they couldn’t even get him into the runoff, so putting all his eggs in their basket after he has alienated his base would probably prove worse than futile.

It seems Carroll is flirting with disaster if he is willing to bet the farm on Julian. But this would be an incredibly bold move for a man whose campaign could be described as anything but bold. But maybe a close up look at defeat has made him remember where he left his cojones. If Carroll does ultimately endorse Julian, then they must be eighteen pounds apiece and solid bronze. Keep watching and we’ll see what Schubert is really made of.